Well the Third Leg of the Triple Crown is upon us. I think this Race is Curlin's, Race to lose! There are only 7 horses running this year. Here
are the Odds and a pretty good analysis of each Horse.
1. Imawildandcrazyguy (20-1) – Ran better than most expected (including me) in the Kentucky Derby (at 29-1) finishing 4ttj only ½ length behind Curlin. While this one and No. 5 Slew’s Tizzy are the longest morning line prices here, Imawildandcrazyguy is gaining support off that effort and being a rested horse. Problem is that while he looks to be able to run all day, he’s never won an Allowance race let alone a Stakes. Guidry stays aboard.
2. Tiago (10-1) – Disappointing effort in the Derby after surprising win in the Santa Anita Derby at 29-1. Distance shouldn’t be a problem and Tiago’s backers will toss out his Churchill performance favoring his closing kick at Santa Anita. If he follows his pattern of good race then poor race, he’s due for a top effort.
3. Curlin (6-5) – Can’t help but wonder if Curlin would have had a Grade l race prior to the Kentucky Derby that perhaps he’d be going for the Triple Crown. Not taking anything away from Street Sense but he did have a perfect rail trip until the straightaway. Anyway, there’s really no telling how good Curlin is but this race should let us know. His 1:53.2 matched Secretariat’s Daily Racing Form time in the Preakness. Clearly the horse to beat.
4. C P West (12-1) – 4th by 5 ½ in the Preakness, 2nd in the Grade 3 Withers at Aqueduct, 2nd by ¾ of a length in Belmont Race Track’s 2-year-old Grade 2 Futurity and 6th 22 lengths behind Street Sense in last year’s Breeders Cup Juvenile. But he did win a Maiden Special Weights in his 1st attempt for his only 1st place finish and he does have Zito. No doubt this one needs dramatic improvement to win here.
5. Slew’s Tizzy (20-1) – Forgot to show up against Circular Quay in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby but did win his last two, the Lexington and the Lone Star Derby against lesser company. This one and Imawildandcrazyguy are the only two in the Belmont without at least one Beyer figure of 100 or greater. Would be a major upset if Tizzy gets there.
6. Hard Spun (5-2) – Hard Spun won 5 of his first 6 before almost stealing the Kentucky Derby on the front end. Note that he’s off two tough efforts and didn’t have a bullet drill in his last workout like he did prior to his Grade 2 Lanes End victory, 2nd place finish in the Derby and finishing 3rd in the Preakness. Perhaps those two Triple Crown races took too much out of him. We’ll see.
7. Rags to Riches (3-1) – It’s not often that we see a filly take on the boys in the Belmont, but this one may be pretty special. She toyed with the other 3-year-olds in the Santa Anita Oaks and the Kentucky Oaks, the filly’s edition of the Santa Anita Derby and Kentucky Derby. But now she faces the colts and loses jockey Gomez to Hard Spun as Pletcher hesitated too long before entering her in this one. In any case, Rags to Riches is a half sister to last year’s Belmont winner Jazil and her daddy A.P. Indy also won this one.
Selections:
1. Curlin
2. Rags to Riches
3. Tiago
4. Hard Spun
